FXUS65 KTWC 212115
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
215 PM MST WED OCT 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PROVIDE QUIET WEATHER FOR 
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR 
NIGHTS EXPECTED. EXPECT ONLY A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE 
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A SPLENDID AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WITH 
CRYSTAL CLEAR SKIES...DRY AIR...VERY LIGHT WINDS AND LOWER DESERT 
TEMPS HOLDING IN THE 70S AS EXPECTED. LOW CLOUDS WRAPPING AROUND 
EXITING SYSTEM IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CLEAR 
QUICKLY THIS EVENING. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED AGAIN 
TONIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO GET AT LEAST AS COOL AS WE SAW THIS 
MORNING...UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S EASTERN PIMA COUNTY AND AGAIN SOME 30S 
ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF TUCSON.

NOT MUCH TO REPORT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES WITH LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER AND ZERO 
POPS. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC... 
ALLOWING ONLY A VERY GRADUAL WARMING TREND IN AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS 
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF AGREE THAT THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BECOME 
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A STRONG TROUGH 
CARVING OUT OVER THE ROCKIES. BOTH MODELS AGREE ON PLACING A STRONG 
UPPER LOW NEAR THE VICINITY OF THE FOUR CORNERS ABOUT NEXT WEDNESDAY.
ENOUGH AGREEMENT SEEN TODAY TO ADD SOME TOKEN POPS TO THE GRIDS FOR 
NEXT WEDNESDAY WHICH MATCH WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...BUT NO POPS 
ARE MENTIONED IN THE TEXT PRODUCTS. NORTHEAST CWA STANDS THE BEST 
CHANCE OF RECEIVING PRECIP FROM THIS PATTERN AS CURRENTLY PROGGED 
FOR NEXT WEEK. ALSO...KNOCKED DOWN MAX TEMPS FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY IN 
LINE WITH 12Z MEX GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LIGHT 
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT 
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS TO 
OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

TURNER

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON